Abstract
Climate Data Science (CDS) Toolbox Species Distribution Model (SDM) aims identifying the suitable areas for species, community of species and landscape units. This model is based on the use of 23 variables available over the Internet, for which any assumptions are formulated about their relationships with the spatial distribution of species. The application of CDS Toolbox SDM on the assessment of the potential impact of two scenarios of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP6.0) on the suitability of grapevine crops in France shows a general decrease of the most suitable areas for grapevine crops between 41% and 83% towards 2070 according to the current location of the vineyard parcels. The results underline a potential shift of the suitable areas in northern part of the French territory. They also show a potential shift of the most suitable areas in altitude (60 m in average) for RCP6.0 scenario. Finally, the model shows that RCP4.5 scenario should be more drastic than RCP6.0 scenario by 2050 and 2070. In effect, the model underlines a significant potential decrease of cultivated crops in the areas of high probably of suitable areas, according to the baseline scenario. This decrease would be of 630,000 ha for 2070 RCP4.5 scenario and 330,000 ha for 2070 RCP6.0 scenario.
Highlights
Species Distribution Models (SDM) have shown a significant development in the last decades, especially due to the needs of scientists to provide methods and tools in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of species or communities of species [1].public and private sectors, and the public in general interested on the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems services, expressed the need to have more access to studies, tools and results from the experts.Currently different methodologies are in use to estimate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution and assemble of species at different spatio-temporal scales
We propose a model integrated into a set of other models and tools named CDS toolbox SDM (CDS for Climate Data Science) in order to assess the potential suitable areas for species, community of species, or landscape units according to current and future scenarios of climate change
In the CDS toolbox SDM, the algorithm carries out this calculation for each pixel of a particular territory according to the 23 variables taken into account for defining the ecological niche of a species like Ministers of Ecology and Agriculture, Mayors and public authorities, farmers, forest managers, policy makers, protected areas administrators, supply chain supervisors, etc
Summary
Species Distribution Models (SDM) have shown a significant development in the last decades, especially due to the needs of scientists to provide methods and tools in order to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of species or communities of species [1]. We started to develop this model in 2009, in the frame of an exploratory project called “Climpact” in order to assess the potential consequences of climate change scenarios on the risk of wildland fires in Corsica [14,15] This first prototype, computerized in C++, was initially based on three climatic variables (minimum temperature—Tmin; maximum temperatures—Tmax, precipitations—P). Since the beginning of its design, this SDM provided three main benefits: It respects the intermittent nature of species occurrences into environmental variables; It is a GIS (Geographic Information System) based application that does not require a high level of expertise in computer systems in order to implement it;. The discussion is based on the comments of the models results and a comparison with other studies on the potential impact of climate change on grapevine crops
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