Assessing Stand-Level Climate Change Risk Using Forest Inventory Data and Species Distribution Models

Abstract

Climate change is having important effects on forest ecosystems, presenting a challenge for natural resource professionals to reduce climate-associated impacts while still achieving diverse management objectives. Regional projections of climate change and forest response are becoming more readily available, but managers are still searching for practical ways to apply this information. We propose that commonly collected forest inventory data be used in conjunction with species distribution models to better understand the potential response of forests to climate change and inform management at the site level. In this article, we propose a new climate risk metric that incorporates stand-level forest inventory data with projections of tree species habitat from the Climate Change Tree Atlas. This climate risk metric can serve as a starting point for managers to consider how forests may be altered by climate change. We also describe two examples of how this metric was used in real-world management situations.