Assessing spatiotemporal settlement patterns in Eastern Free State, South Africa, pre and post transition from apartheid to majority rule

Abstract

Spatial patterns of human settlements, their changes and their geographical implications are important for understanding the drivers of land use and land cover change. This paper examines the spatiotemporal pattern of settlement development in three different settlements of Thabo Mofutsanyane municipal district namely Harrismith, Vrede and Ladybrand using GIS, remote sensing and spatial metrics techniques. The study is based on 30 years of time-series data compiled from satellite images with emphasis on pre and post 1994’s (the year of change in government from apartheid to majority rule) spatial change in settlement development. Landsat 4–5 imageries for 1989, 1999, 2009 and Landsat 8 OLI for 2018 were downloaded and classified for land use/land cover change (LULCC). Also, landscape and class metrics were computed using Fragstats QGIS 2.18.9 to generate spatial analysis. A dynamic spatial pattern is observed in the settlements under study. Urban built-up areas had a rapid trend of growth in Harrismith from 1989 (5 years before transition from apartheid to majority rule) to 1999 (5 years after transition from apartheid to majority rule) but later slowed down in the subsequent years under study while Ladybrand and Vrede had moderate growth trend in the subsequent years under study. The settlement development process has developed fragmented and heterogeneous land use combinations in the years after 1994. At landscape level, land fragmentation occurred due to land use changes and significant urban expansion; Ladybrand experienced more physical connectedness than Harrismith and Vrede. While at class level, Harrismith and Vrede are more aggregated or physically connected than Ladybrand; this means Ladybrand was relatively more fragmented than the other two settlements. The study results show that a LULCC and landscape metrics integrated approach is effective to analyse and describe the spatial patterns of urban landscapes.