Abstract
The 2007 European Union Floods Directive encouraged member nations to pursue a more integrated view of flood risks and management strategies, taking into account social vulnerabilities of residents. To date, most flood-risk analyses conducted by the Dutch government have focused on physical risk. This study utilizes fine-scale data to construct a social vulnerability index for 147 districts of the Dutch province of Zeeland, located in the Southwestern Delta and the scene of widespread devastation following the 1953 North Sea Flood. Factor analysis of 25 indicators of social vulnerability selected from related research in Europe and the United States results in seven factors explaining roughly 66% of the total variance. These factors of social vulnerability in Zeeland are urban density, low-income households, recent population change, female gender, train access, and self-employed and service-sector employment. The index was constructed using the top-loading variable in each of these factors, with weights determined by the variance explained by each factor. Scores range from a low of 0.20 in Schore, municipality of Kapelle, to the highest score of 0.64 in Oudelandse Hoeve of Terneuzen. The most vulnerable districts are located in South Zeeland, with eight of the 10 found in Terneuzen. The majority of less vulnerable districts are located in Zeeland’s central region.
Highlights
The remarkable flood-control engineering achievements of the Dutch likely will be tested in the years to come
The Zeeland social vulnerability index ranges from a score of 0.20 in Schore in the municipality of Kapelle, indicating low social vulnerability, to a maximum score of 0.64, indicating high vulnerability, in Oudelandse Hoeve of Terneuzen
This study has demonstrated a method for assessing social vulnerability at a fine scale in the Dutch province of Zeeland, using readily accessible data
Summary
The remarkable flood-control engineering achievements of the Dutch likely will be tested in the years to come. The most common disaster was storms (18), followed by extreme temperature (4), flooding (3), earthquake (1), and epidemic (1). These events varied greatly in magnitude, but collectively resulted in 2013 deaths and over USD 4.5 billion worth of damage (CRED 2010). In light of increasing flood hazards, the 2007 European Union Floods Directive encourages member nations to adopt a more integrated view of flood risks and management strategies, taking into account the social vulnerabilities of residents (Beurton and Thieken 2012). The most comprehensive disaster impact assessment is the Veiligheid Nederland in Kaart (VNK), or Flood Risk in the Netherlands (VNK2 2012), which takes into account environmental factors such as mean elevation and sea-level rise, along with the likelihood of failures of flood protection structures.
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