ASSESSING SENTENCING REFORM: AN EX ANTE IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF THE OKLAHOMA TRUTH IN SENTENCING’ ACT

Abstract

ABSTRACT Oklahoma is currently involved in a reform of its criminal sentencing statutes. These reform efforts involve eliminating parole and the indeterminate sentencing structure of the present statutes and replacing these with a “truth in sentencing” framework. Under the proposed structure judges would retain discretion; however, the punishment ranges available to the sentencing court would be significantly restricted. Moreover, convicted offenders would be required to serve no less than 80 percent of the sentence imposed. State law mandates an ex ante assessment of the possible impact of the changes to the state's sentencing structure on future inmate populations prior to passage of the proposal. Using data from a variety of official sources and a stochastic entity simulation model developed by the National Council on Crime and Delinquency, this paper presents the results of this research effort. The model projects a smaller increase in the inmate population under the proposed legislation relative to that projected under the current sentencing structure. However, the proposed sentencing scheme will, without considerable modification, lead to a total annual inmate population in FY 2001 which is still well beyond the planned system capacity.