Assessing seismic risk in the built environment of Istanbul: High-resolution hazard mapping and ground motion analysis in the sea of Marmara region

Abstract

This research scrutinizes the seismic threat looming over Istanbul, potentially subject to a substantial earthquake. We analyze six plausible earthquake scenarios, utilizing six ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to forge high-resolution seismic hazard maps. These maps reveal not only peak horizontal ground accelerations but also spectral acceleration values across varying temporal frames, integrating the amplification effects of softer sediments. Our approach delineates that Istanbul’s western shoreline faces heightened risk, with median spectral accelerations at 0.3 s approaching 1 g, signifying intense shaking potential. In contrast, the area encompassing the financial district exhibits lower values, around 0.3 g. The granularity of these findings lays bare the seismic vulnerabilities of the region, offering a window into the risks and potential damages facing this bustling metropolis. This enhanced understanding paves the way for strategic urban planning and risk mitigation efforts aimed at safeguarding Istanbul’s populace and infrastructure. This article succinctly condenses our study’s pivotal conclusions, presenting a clarion call for proactive measures to diminish earthquake impacts on this dynamic urban landscape.