Assessing Risk for Violent and General Recidivism: A Study of the HCR-20 and the PCL-R with a Non-Clinical Sample of Portuguese Offenders

Abstract

The present study intended to contribute to the development of risk assessment research and practice in Portugal, while addressing less explored areas of research in the international literature. We sought to replicate and extend the validity of the HCR-20 and the PCL-R, and their components, in a correctional community setting, with a sample of 158 non-mentally disordered Portuguese offenders, regarding both violent and nonviolent recidivism. The predictive, convergent and incremental validity of the HCR-20 and the PCL-R were prospectively tested in relation to general, violent and nonviolent recidivism. Furthermore, the performance of the structured professional judgment (SPJ) was compared to the pure actuarial use of the HCR-20. Both the HCR-20 and the PCL-R showed good predictive validity, although the HCR-20 tended to outperform the PCL-R for general, violent and nonviolent recidivism, adding significant incremental validity to predictions made solely with the PCL-R. High coefficients for the prediction of general and nonviolent recidivism showed that the HCR-20 and the PCL-R can be valid risk measures for outcome other than violence and that they can be useful in nonclinical settings. Results also provided support for the validity and utility of the SPJ method, especially for the assessment of violent outcomes. Our findings showed that internationally disseminated assessment tools, such as the HCR-20 and the PCL-R, can be used with Portuguese offenders with valid and efficient results.