Assessing risk and resilience of critical infrastructures in the fuel and energy economy involving failure cascading effects

Abstract

A practical procedure of risk and resilience assessment, with cascading failures occurring in the fuel and energy economy, is proposed. It is based on the threshold values and multi-energy methods. The probability analysis of the equipment damage is carried out using vulnerability models for various equipment classes and in the process the probit-functional analysis is applied. Resilience indices-criteria are used for assessing the resilience of plants as complex mechanical systems. The procedure proposed enables calculating threshold values of cascading failure; safe distances for equipments; probability assessment of failure propagation. It also adds to identifying the facilities triggering cascading effects; probability of the equipment damage; to assessing the amount of damage and the damage loss rate. The strategy (procedure) allows ranking the equipment as related to the risk of domino effects’ occurrence; analyzing consequences for each cascade direction and the possibility of its propagation on to the following level; evaluating the resilience state of the plant as a technical system. The damage amount and damage loss rate are evaluated comparing the load received and predetermined threshold values of cascading failure for various equipment classes. The strategy (procedure) developed will allow judging about safety of one or other type of a tank farm containing hydrocarbons; the results obtained in the process and the actual data converge. This strategy (procedure) is strongly recommended to be applied by experts in the field of industrial safety in developing industrial safety manifests, safety justification as well as in developing safety registration certificates of critical infrastructures.