Assessing rainfall-induced landslide risk in a humanitarian context: The Kutupalong Rohingya Camp in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh

Abstract

We have proposed a novel method for assessing landslide risk by applying cutting-edge geospatial technologies and combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability components. The Kutupalong Rohingya Camp (KRC) in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, was taken as a case study area. The district was hosting over one million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar, fleeing genocide and crimes against humanity. Extensive vegetation removal, hill cutting, exceptionally dense camps, fragile shelters, unstable soils, and excess monsoon rainfall were linked to yearly landslides. At first, ten landslide factor maps were produced, and a detailed fieldwork-based landslide inventory was conducted. Next, we applied various statistical and knowledge-based approaches for landslide susceptibility modelling. The most accurate susceptibility map was utilised to produce landslide hazard maps for different rainfall return periods. Next, we used population and shelter density data for exposure mapping and integrated age and gender-based factors for social vulnerability analysis. The hazard, exposure, and vulnerability maps were combined to produce the landslide risk map. Finally, we calculated shelters and refugee populations at risk for different scenarios. Camp 10 had the highest risk value, and historical landslide events validated the results. This study is replicable in a similar context and can be scaled up. It provides authentic information on landslide disaster scenarios that should be adopted in the decision-making process to reduce future impacts of catastrophic hydrometeorological disasters in the KRC and surrounding host community areas.