Assessing Rainfall and Temperature Changes in Semi-Arid Areas of Tanzania

Peter Matata,Magreth Bushesha,John Msindai

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2019.82010

Abstract

This paper examines the variability of rainfall and temperature in Igunga and Kishapu Districts using time series data (1985 to 2016) from Tanzania Meteorological Agency. The regression analysis results show rainfall variability of R2 = 0.096 in Igunga and R2 = 0.186 in Kishapu which implies that about 0.96% and 1.86% of the changes in rainfall across the districts are associated with changes in weather variables. A considerable change of amount of rains was evident in Igunga than in Kishapu District. In both districts there was a change of months with the most rains. Generally rainfall showed a decreasing trend in both districts. The paper also examined temperature trends in the two districts; the findings showed an increasing trend throughout October in both districts. From this point of view, higher temperatures can increase evapo-transpiration that in turn can have an effect on moisture for the crops adversely affecting pasture productivity for livestock, and leading to a shortage of water for both crops and livestock. Annual rainfall variability trends, however, increased indicating that annual variability was somewhat a common feature in the study districts. So, districts efforts should be directed towards the support of crop and livestock adjustments in order to buffer impacts of rainfall and temperature variability during critical periods for growing of crops and pastures.

Highlights

IntroductionEven though there is a long history of droughts in Tanzania, studies show that the frequency of droughts has increased over the past few decades, especially in semi-arid areas such as Dodoma, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora and some parts of Arusha and Iringa [2] [5] [6]
This paper examines the variability of rainfall and temperature in Igunga and Kishapu Districts using time series data (1985 to 2016) from Tanzania Meteorological Agency
This paper examined trends in seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature in Igunga and Kishapu districts

Summary

Introduction

Even though there is a long history of droughts in Tanzania, studies show that the frequency of droughts has increased over the past few decades, especially in semi-arid areas such as Dodoma, Shinyanga, Singida, Tabora and some parts of Arusha and Iringa [2] [5] [6]. Rainfall variability data analysed for the period between 1974 and 2005 in semi-arid of Shinyanga Rural District in Tanzania, reported no significant decrease over time. Decreasing measured rainfall and increasing temperature for the period between 1992 and 2007 were reported in Manyoni, another semi-arid area in Tanzania [5] [7]

Methods

Results

Conclusion