Abstract
Abstract. Conducting long-term hazard assessment in active volcanic areas is of primary importance for land-use planning and defining emergency plans able to be applied in case of a crisis. A definition of scenario hazard maps helps to mitigate the consequences of future eruptions by anticipating the events that may occur. Lanzarote is an active volcanic island that has hosted the largest (> 1.5 km3 DRE) and longest (6 years) eruption, the Timanfaya eruption (1730–1736), on the Canary Islands in historical times (last 600 years). This eruption brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. In spite of all these facts, no comprehensive hazard assessment or hazard maps have been developed for the island. In this work, we present an integrated long-term volcanic hazard evaluation using a systematic methodology that includes spatial analysis and simulations of the most probable eruptive scenarios.
Highlights
Active volcanic areas require conducting long-term hazard assessments in order to ensure rational land planning and to expand precise emergency plans that can be applied in case of a crisis
Long-term hazard assessment is important for identifying the main aspects related to volcanic hazards, such as the extension, the magnitude and the potential hazard impact zones in an area, which should be known by local population and potential visitors, especially when these may potentially affect tourist destinations
To identify the different structural elements that we considered in the susceptibility analysis, we defined vents and eruptive fissures following the same criteria established by Becerril et al (2013, 2014, 2015) on El Hierro
Summary
Active volcanic areas require conducting long-term hazard assessments in order to ensure rational land planning and to expand precise emergency plans that can be applied in case of a crisis. Even when the impact of past eruptions has not been very significant – causing no serious damage to human life or properties – they might be a socioeconomic disaster due to urban sprawl and the vulnerability of exposed elements This is, for example, the case of the Canary Islands, where, despite 15 eruptions in historical times (last 600 years), volcanic hazard assessment is still a pending task for most of the islands. We applied a systematic methodology to conduct long-term volcanic hazard assessment at Lanzarote, based on a review of these previous studies, new generate information and the application of the methodology and e-tools described by Martí et al (2016a) (see www.vetools.eu) It includes the sequential application of spatial analysis, temporal analysis, simulation of most probable scenarios and vulnerability analysis. Results obtained are volcanic hazard scenario maps, which should be considered for land-use planning, elaboration of emergency plans and managing a volcanic crisis in order to protect people, their properties and the geological heritage of the island
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