Assessing potential habitat distribution range of the endangered tree species Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb. Under the climate change scenario in India

Abstract

Pterocarpus marsupium Roxb., a significant deciduous tree species of high medicinal value is depleting fast due to various biotic and abiotic factors and is included in the near threatened species category of IUCN red list. The potential distribution range of P. marsupium for India was modeled for the year 2020 and 2050 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 8.5) scenarios of climate change using Maxent, to study the impact of climate change on its distribution. The study revealed that at present ~3.08% geographical area of India is highly suitable to distribution of P. marsupium and depending upon RCP this may expand upto ~ 3.11-3.53% by 2050. The zone wise analysis for the present climatic conditions predicted prominent presence of high suitable habitat range of P. marsupium in the central zone comprising ~ 1.82% of the total geographical area of India followed by southern and western zones with ~ 0.53% and ~ 0.49% distribution area respectively. The study predicted northward shifting of suitable habitat by 2050 with an increase in suitable area in the range of ~0.6-11%, ~6.4-24.5% and ~20-60% for the central, southern and western zone respectively, but ~26%-53% decrease in the eastern zone. Annual precipitation (Bio_12) was the most significant contributor variable in limiting the distribution of P. marsupium for the present as well as future climatic conditions. The result provides baseline information for identification and prioritization of areas for the conservation and promotion of P. marsupium in India.