Assessing potential distribution zone prone to invasion risk of Hyptis suaveolens (L) in Jharkhand, Eastern India using Maxent

Abstract

The rapid spread of alien invasive plant species hasemerged as one of the serious issues for the forest composition, biodiversity and ecosystem services. The most probable distribution range of Hyptis suaveolens was modeled for Jharkhand using Maxent for the year 2020 and 2050 under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) i.e . 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. The model predicted that at present ~5.89% of the geographical area of Jharkhand is under High Risk Zone (HRZ) to infestation of H. suaveolens and by 2050 the potential area of invasion may increase to ~6.35- 6.98% depending upon RCP`s. Model predicted prominent distribution H. suaveolens in agroclimatic sub zone IV with ~ 4.89% of sub zone area under HRZ, followed by comparatively very small ~0.49% area of sub zone V and ~ 0.50% area of sub zone VI are under HRZ of invasion threat of H. suaveolens. The study predicted dominance of the distribution in sub zone IV to continue in future also and this may increase to ~ 5.41-6.05% by 2050 depending upon RCP scenario. In contrast, a declining trend may occur in sub zone V, where the potential infested area may decrease in the range of ~0.17%-0.04% depending upon RCPs. The study showed tropical dry deciduous forests and non-forest classes are more prone to infestation of H. suaveolens. Bio_8 (mean temperature of wettest quarter) and Bio_18 (precipitation of warmest quarter) contributed most in limiting the distribution of H. suaveolens for the year 2020 and 2050 respectively. The study provides prior identification of the potential distribution sites prone to infestation of H. suaveolens , enabling prioritization of treatment areas to curtail further invasion.