Assessing political support in China: Citizens’ evaluations of governmental effectiveness and legitimacy

Abstract

Whether the Chinese Communist regime can maintain socio‐political stability and survive the potentially turbulent transition to the post‐Deng Xiaoping era remains a serious question challenging many China watchers. Assuming that political support is vital to the stability of any regime, the authors seek to answer this question by examining two major components of political support, instrumental support (citizens’ evaluations of governmental effectiveness) and affective support (citizens’ evaluations of governmental legitimacy). Using data collected from a public opinion survey conducted in Beijing, China in late 1995, this study explores the levels of both affective support and instrumental support, and the nature of the relationship between these two types of political support in China today. The results of this study show that: (1) the current Chinese regime enjoys a moderately high level of affective support and a slightly lower level of instrumental support; (2) the two types of political support are moderately correlated; and (3) the relationship between these two types of support persists across key demographic groups. Based on these results, the authors conclude that the current Chinese leadership has a good chance to maintain political stability in the post‐Deng era, while it will face severe challenges in substantially upgrading its current level of legitimacy by solely relying upon improvements in governmental effectiveness in the short term.