Assessing ocean temperature’s role in fishery production

Zachary Porreca

doi:10.1007/s10818-021-09311-1

Abstract

Ocean temperatures are increasing. Little work has been done to examine the effects that these changes will have on fishery production. The study at hand seeks to incorporate the influence of climate change into an established static bioeconomic fishery model. Stock biomass is approximated to be a function of sea surface temperature. Following a feasible generalized least squares regression using data from the Western and Central Pacific, the interaction between fishery effort and temperature is found to be statistically significant. From this model, various functional forms relating effort, catch, profit, and temperature are specified. In particular, a function that returns an effort requirement given a target catch level and temperature forecast is generated.The importance of these tools for fishery management is explored through application to Western and Central Pacific tuna fisheries. Recommendations for extensions into future research are made and the foundation for a model of efficient effort allocation across time and the entirety of a management area, given changing temperatures, is specified. The study has succeeded in establishing the statistically significant role that temperature plays in the fishery production function.

Highlights

It is beyond doubt that ocean temperatures are rising globally
Empirical Methodology and Results The model derived in equation (8) was fit to the data at hand using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) panel data method
The equations derived in this paper are of clear value to fishery managers, and point to the role that consideration of temperature must play in fishery management moving forward as the planet is faced with rising ocean temperatures

Summary

Introduction

The past thirty years have seen mean January temperatures across the Pacific rise more than five percent1 These temperature increases cause dramatic habitat changes and will likely affect the biological processes and ecology of marine species. Schaefer’s model looked at fishery catch as a function of the interplay between effort, a species’ growth rate, and that species’ environment’s natural carrying capacity (Schaefer, 1954). This model was notably expanded upon by Lynn et al (1981). In this paper the model was expanded to include the influence of an environmental factor on a particular fishery In this case, the impact of the mangrove area on a Florida crab fishery was examined. For a survey of various bioeconomic fishery models which incorporate environmental variables see Knowler (2002) and Foley et al (2012)

Results

Discussion

Conclusion