Abstract
In this paper, we assess the short‐term forecast error of a mesoscale primitive‐equation open‐ocean model, induced by uncertainties in wind forcing. Statistics calculated from an ensemble of ocean states show that temperature forecast error is strongest at the top of the ensemble‐mean thermocline, as a consequence of vertical displacement of the mixed‐layer base around its ensemble mean. Horizontal pattern of the temperature error in the mixed‐layer is mainly explained by horizontal advection and surface heat flux fluctuations. These two mechanisms and entrainment through the mixed‐layer bottom are presented as the three processes responsible for thermal forecast error growth in the modeled upper ocean.
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