Assessing Neighbor and Population Growth Influences on Agricultural Land Conversion

Abstract

This study uses remote sensing data to assess the extent of agricultural land converted to developed (built-up) land in Alberta, Canada, from 2000 to 2012. Pairing aggregated conversion values with county-level census data, we further investigate the impacts of population growth and conversion activities in the neighboring areas on agricultural land conversion. To account for the omitted variable bias and spatial dependency, a first-differenced spatial regression model is used. The results show that spillover effects can be attributed to both neighbor conversion activities and neighboring population growth. Controlling for spatial dependence is important for producing estimates with minimized risk of bias. A policymaker who considers land use strategies in isolation from neighbors may make decisions with potentially adverse impacts. The dominant influences of population growth and spatial lag effects direct recommendations on regional planning mandates and mechanisms that promote densification in urban areas.