Assessing Near Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Products for Flood Simulations at Sub-Daily Scales in a Sparsely Gauged Watershed in Peruvian Andes

Harold Llauca,Karen León,Pedro Rau,Juan Jimenez,Waldo Lavado-Casimiro,Kevin Traverso

doi:10.3390/rs13040826

Abstract

This study investigates the applicability of Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) in near real-time for the simulation of sub-daily runoff in the Vilcanota River basin, located in the southeastern Andes of Peru. The data from rain gauge stations are used to evaluate the quality of Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM–Early (IMERG-E), Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation–Near Real-Time (GSMaP-NRT), Climate Prediction Center Morphing Method (CMORPH), and HydroEstimator (HE) at the pixel-station level; and these SPPs are used as meteorological inputs for the hourly hydrological modeling. The GR4H model is calibrated with the hydrometric station of the longest record, and model simulations are also verified at one station upstream and two stations downstream of the calibration point. Comparing the sub-daily precipitation data observed, the results show that the IMERG-E product generally presents higher quality, followed by GSMaP-NRT, CMORPH, and HE. Although the SPPs present positive and negative biases, ranging from mild to moderate, they do represent the diurnal and seasonal variability of the hourly precipitation in the study area. In terms of the average of Kling-Gupta metric (KGE), the GR4H_GSMaP-NRT’ yielded the best representation of hourly discharges (0.686), followed by GR4H_IMERG-E’ (0.623), GR4H_Ensemble-Mean (0.617) and GR4H_CMORPH’ (0.606), and GR4H_HE’ (0.516). Finally, the SPPs showed a high potential for monitoring floods in the Vilcanota basin in near real-time at the operational level. The results obtained in this research are very useful for implementing flood early warning systems in the Vilcanota basin and will allow the monitoring and short-term hydrological forecasting of floods by the Peruvian National Weather and Hydrological Service.

Highlights

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Peru [1], negatively impacting the country at a socioeconomic level, affecting the physical and mental health of the population and causing severe damage to public and private property each year [2]
This study evaluates the suitability of applying near real-time Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) for monitoring and forecasting floods in the Vilcanota River basin in the Cusco Region of Peru by way of (a) meteorological and (b) hydrological analyses
There are few studies in the Andean region of Peru that focus on the near real-time

Summary

Introduction

Floods are one of the most frequent natural disasters in Peru [1], negatively impacting the country at a socioeconomic level, affecting the physical and mental health of the population and causing severe damage to public and private property each year [2]. Heavy precipitation in January 2010 caused a great impact on the Andean region of Cusco. 55% corresponding to infrastructure, 35% to health, and 10% to agriculture and tourism [3]. Despite the efforts made in recent decades, floods remain a recurring problem and tend to be increasingly frequent in the context of a changing climate. Flood monitoring and forecasting are key to reducing risk, improving decision-making and population response capacity, and mitigating its negative impacts [4]

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