Abstract
Drought is a complex and poorly understood natural hazard in complex terrain and plains lie in foothills of Hindukush-Himalaya-Karakoram region of Central and South Asia. Few research studied climate change scenarios in the transboundary Chitral Kabul River Basin (CKRB) despite its vulnerability to global warming and importance as a region inhabited with more than 10 million people where no treaty on use of water exists between Afghanistan and Pakistan. This study examines the meteorological and agricultural drought between 2000 and 2018 and their future trends from 2020 to 2030 in the CKRB. To study meteorological and agricultural drought comprehensively, various single drought indices such as Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI) and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and combined drought indices such as Scaled Drought Condition Index (SDCI) and Microwave Integrated Drought Index (MIDI) were utilized. As non-microwave data were used in MIDI, this index was given a new name as Non-Microwave Integrated Drought Index (NMIDI). Our research has found that 2000 was the driest year in the monsoon season followed by 2004 that experienced both meteorological and agricultural drought between 2000 and 2018. Results also indicate that though there exists spatial variation in the agricultural and meteorological drought, but temporally there has been a decreasing trend observed from 2000 to 2018 for both types of droughts. This trend is projected to continue in the future drought projections between 2020 and 2030. The overall study results indicate that drought can be properly assessed by integration of different data sources and therefore management plans can be developed to address the risk and signing new treaties.
Highlights
Extreme events and their severe damages have become more common worldwide in recent years [1]
Agricultural drought is measured in terms of deficiency in soil moisture, rainfall and groundwater resulting in crop yield reduction [12]
Current global and regional climate changes with these future projections pose a great impact on Chitral Kabul River Basin (CKRB) for existing water usage, future requirements and its sharing for the people living on both sides of the border
Summary
Extreme events and their severe damages have become more common worldwide in recent years [1]. Previous studies show that due to climate change, the mean annual temperature at this basin will increase by 2.2 ◦C and 2.8 ◦C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, in the following decades of the current century, whereas the precipitation has not shown a clear trend [39] With this context, current global and regional climate changes with these future projections pose a great impact on CKRB for existing water usage, future requirements and its sharing for the people living on both sides of the border. There is a need to study the drought scenario in the region using advanced remote sensing and GIS techniques for proper water management and future planning For this purpose, various single and combined drought indices are calculated using satellite data, modeled data and blended product that combine satellite imagery with in situ station data (Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS)) and in situ ground station data for validation. This study will provide insights into the drought scenarios of CKRB and will be very useful for the broader scope of the entire CKRB project on combined surface and ground water modeling and for the policymakers on both sides of the border for water resource management and sharing, contingency planning and agricultural planning
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