Assessing market efficiency in Palestine Securities Exchange (PSE) market at weak form: Analysis from 2010–2022

Abstract

The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are efficient, meaning that current market values of stocks incorporate all available information. This study examines the weak-form efficiency of Palestine Stock Exchange stocks using the indices returns from 2010 to 2022. The study used parametric tests (Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root, serial autocorrelation) and nonparametric tests (Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root, run test, variance ratio test). The findings of these tests provide insights into the behavior of the Palestine Stock Exchange market. The run test outcomes reveal a statistically significant pattern in the data for general, insurance, and service indices, with a p-value below the significance level. Furthermore, the unit root tests indicate statistical significance for all indices with 0.00 p-values and t-statistic below the critical values of –2.86 for level and intercept, and –3.14 for level, trend, and intercept, signifying that the indices returns are stationary. In addition, serial autocorrelation test show that the general and Al-Quds indices show statistically significant links between consecutive observations at all four lags. However, the insurance, investment, and services indices show statistically significant results on three lags. The variance ratio test results challenge the random-walk hypothesis for all indices except industry and insurance. With low probability values, a discernible, long-term, predictable pattern is evident in the Palestine Stock Exchange indices. The analysis reveals that Palestine Stock Exchange index returns exhibit nonrandom behavior, suggesting predictability and patterns in daily returns, indicating the possibility of exploiting market inefficiencies in investment strategies.