Assessing machine leaning algorithms on crop yield forecasts using functional covariates derived from remotely sensed data

Abstract

Machine learning methods are increasingly used in analyzing remotely sensed data and studying different aspects of agricultural production. In particular, several of these flexible models are widely adopted to predict regional crop yield during or after the growing season. However, most existing models cannot be applied when dealing with functional covariates. In this paper, an approach based on multidimensional scaling is proposed to generate a set of artificial covariates from empirical density functions of different phenomena captured within specific administrative boundaries through satellites. In contrast to traditional aggregation methods, this approach is designed to reduce the loss of information associated with the use of summary statistics as covariates. The proposed methodology is applied to NASA remote sensing data, combined with information from surveys and USDA’s end-of-season county estimates, to study the prediction accuracy of different crop-yield models for three major crops in North Dakota.