Assessing losses from multi-hazard coastal events using Poisson regression: empirical evidence from Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), India

Abstract

Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR), an ecologically sensitive and dynamic region, is susceptible to cyclones, floods, storm surge and sea level rise. Multi-hazard events in the Reserve have severely affected the coastal landscape and increased the magnitude of various losses to the communities during the last ten years. Losses such as damage to houses, asset loss, land loss and livestock deaths have largely occurred due to multi-hazard events. This article makes an attempt to assess socio-economic losses occurred due to multi-hazards. We collected data regarding socio-economic losses from 570 sampled households through field survey using questionnaire. Poisson regression was performed to ascertain the relationship between losses and multi-hazard events. Pearson correlation was also utilized to examine the relationship between losses and government relief provided to the sampled households. Results revealed that of the 19 blocks (administrative divisions of the district), Namkhana and Sagar were found to be the most vulnerable blocks to the multi-hazard as maximum losses of house, livestock, land and asset of the sampled households occurred in these blocks. Patharpratima also suffered all types of losses except asset loss. Kultali and Basanti suffered from asset loss while Gosaba and Hingalganj suffered from livestock losses. Weak housing structure, lack of early warning system, insufficient relief, lack of basic amenities, coastal erosion and vicinity to the coast were the main factors for persistent vulnerability to losses in these blocks. Thus, these blocks accord high priority for lessening multi-hazards vulnerability.