Abstract
This research analyzed land-use changes (LUC) in the Nam San Watershed (NSW) by applying geoinformatics methods and land-use modeling approach to explore LUC in the past. Landsat satellite images from years 2002, 2007 and 2013 were classified using a maximum likelihood algorithm to create land-use maps. For assessing future LUC over a period of twenty years (2014–2033), land-use simulations were conducted using a dynamic LUC model (Dyna-CLUE model) in two land management scenarios: Scenario 1 is a simple projection of the LUC trend without reservation area, while Scenario 2 projects the LUC trend with reservation area in future periods. NSW land-use maps for 2002–2013 were analyzed using geoinformatics technology. The results revealed that the amount of forested area within the NSW has reduced drastically, from 380.40 km² to 267.23 km², changing to fields and perennial crops, which the logistic regression identified as being influenced by a slope factor. These data was used as a reference for LUC detection with the model simulation in two scenarios. Model results have shown that by 2033, Scenario 1 predicts a significant decrease in the overall forest area, from 72.21 km² to 41.55 km² in Phu Ruea district, and from 107.31 km² to 45.62 km² in Phu Luang district. Whereas Scenario 2 predicts slightly decreasing forest area within the reservation area, but rapid decrease, from 177.86 km² to 28.54 km² outside the reservation area, where the distance to village factor is the main influencer. These findings highlight the importance and the potential of model predictions for planning activities to protect forested areas.
Highlights
Over the last several decades, South East Asian ecosystems have been altered substantially as a result of the socio-economic change (Mallinis et al 2011; Moreira et al 2001), while future changes are expected to occur (Islam et al 2018; Lambin 1997)
Research related to land-use changes (LUC) dynamics in mountainous regions of Southeast Asia has found that the push factors affecting LUC are usually of a socio-economic context in each watershed area (Geist and Lambin 2002; Luo et al 2010; Turner II et al 2007)
There were LUC in the Nam San Watershed (NSW) from 2002 to 2013, the results show a decrease of the southern forest area in a corridor pattern near the Dan Sai district, Loei Province, in an area characterized by piedmont topography and flatland valleys
Summary
Over the last several decades, South East Asian ecosystems have been altered substantially as a result of the socio-economic change (Mallinis et al 2011; Moreira et al 2001), while future changes are expected to occur (Islam et al 2018; Lambin 1997). Even though there was a royal act to dismiss the concession forest or control the boundary of Phu Ruea National Park and Phu Luang Wildlife Sanctuary, decreasing forested areas are still found periodically (Royal Forest Department 2016) This leads to problems such as soil erosion, and cause repetitious natural disasters, i.e. landslides and floods in the monsoon season from June to October every year (Yumuang 2001), and water deficiency for agriculture in the dry season (Santiphop et al 2012), which results in loss of agricultural production and affects public utility systems in communities in mountainous areas (Gilani et al 2015; Lambin 1997). This watershed area has been affected by human activities
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