Assessing “Invisible Loss” During Medium-Term Earthquake Recovery: The Case of Indonesia's 2016 Aceh Earthquakes

Abstract

AbstractThis study presents the results of a medium-term assessment of earthquake recovery, aiming to measure non-economic welfare losses resulting from the indirect impacts of earthquakes. While most earthquake assessments concentrate on the economic loss and damage caused by direct impacts of earthquakes, this study focuses on capturing these less visible non-economic losses. The 2016 Aceh earthquakes in Indonesia serve as the case study for this assessment. By applying the difference-in-differences method, we compared the changes in a range of non-economic welfare indicators in earthquake-affected and unaffected villages two years before (2014) and two years after (2018) the catastrophic earthquakes. In addition to administrative data, we tested the suitability of average monthly and annual night-time light data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument as an alternative way to capture non-economic welfare losses. The findings from administrative data suggested a significant deterioration in, poverty, access to healthcare and access to socio-economic services in earthquake-affected villages relative to unaffected villages in 2018, compared to 2014. The analysis of nightlights data revealed contrasting results, suggesting that disaster recovery assessments using nightlights may not accurately capture non-economic welfare changes on the ground. Our research indicates that the detrimental effects of earthquakes on non-economic welfare persisted for years following the initial devastation. Utilizing administrative data can help pinpoint the nature and extent of non-economic losses and inform the development of policies to aid in the effective recovery of affected communities.