Assessing intermediate clinical endpoints (ICE) as potential surrogates for overall survival (OS) in men with metastatic hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (mHSPC).

Abstract

5006 Background: We hypothesized that radiographic progression free survival (rPFS) and clinical PFS (cPFS) are valid surrogates for OS in men with mHSPC and could potentially be used to expedite phase 3 clinical trials. This hypothesis was investigated by the STOPCAP M1 Collaboration. Methods: We obtained individual patient data (IPD) from 13/26 eligible randomized trials comparing treatment regimens (androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) or ADT + docetaxel in the control or research arms) in mHSPC. We evaluated the surrogacy of rPFS and cPFS as potential ICEs. rPFS was defined as time from randomization to radiographic progression (defined per protocol) or death from any cause whichever occurred first; cPFS was defined as time from randomization to date of radiographic progression, symptoms, initiation of new treatment, or death, whichever occurred first. OS was defined as time from randomization to death from any cause, if patients had not died they were censored at the date of last follow-up. We implemented a two-stage meta-analytic validation model where conditions of trial level and patient level surrogacy had to be met. We computed the surrogate threshold effect (STE), which is the minimum ICE treatment effect necessary to estimate a non-zero effect on OS. Results: IPD from 8592 patients randomized from 1994-2012 from 13 trials were pooled for a stratified analysis. There were 5377 deaths, of which 3971 (74%) were due to prostate cancer. The median follow-up for surviving patients was 75.6 months. In addition, there were 6227 rPFS and 6314 cPFS events. The median OS, rPFS and cPFS were 49.4, 26.8 and 25.2 months, respectively. The STE was 0.82 for rPFS and 0.84 for cPFS. Conclusions: Both rPFS and cPFS appear to be valid surrogate endpoints for OS. A surrogate threshold effect of 0.82 or higher makes it viable for either rPFS or cPFS to be used as the primary endpoint as a surrogate for OS in phase 3 mHSPC trials and would expedite trial conduct. Validation of these ICEs in trials with drugs having other mechanisms of action is planned. Clinical trial information: Several. [Table: see text]