Assessing Indonesian sugarcane farmers’ perceptions of climate change

Abstract

Climate change is expected to have severe economic, social and environmental impacts on Indonesia. Here we focus particularly on sugarcane farmers in West Java. Analysis of historical climate data shows a downward trend in annual rainfall in the last 20 years. The rainfall pattern in this area is monsoonal with a peak from December to January and a dry season from June to September. Future climate scenarios indicate that precipitation will decrease particularly from November to December, which coincides with the planting time for a new cane crop. Increased probability of drought at this time has been identified as the significant climate change impact on sugarcane farmers. The temperature is predicted to increase but will remain within the crop tolerance range, therefore is not expected to be a significant issue. This research seeks to gain insights from the farmers themselves on their adaptation responses based on questionnaires. Data were collected from 210 individual respondents in Cirebon Regency. The study examines how farmers perceptions correspond with the climate record. The farmers’ perceptions of climate change are in line with data records. The factors that influence farmers perceptions were analysed by an econometric approach using binary logistic regression. The results showed that farmers perception of climate change was significantly related to education, farming experience, effort to irrigate, sugarcane variety, and the age of crops. We are sceptical about the reality of these perceptions. In reality, it is very unlikely that anybody can perceive the average temperature changes less than 1 degree over 38 years.