Assessing impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on global air transportation: From the view of mass flight trajectories

Abstract

Air transportation has been severely affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The closure of involved Russian and Ukrainian airspace made a great number of flights suffer from a dramatic transportation cost increase. Accurately estimating the conflict's impact can help us better comprehend the susceptibility of international airlines and optimize flying routes for global airlines. In this study, we quantitatively analyzed the impact the conflict has brought on global air transportation. The detour of airlines and the variation of flights caused by the conflict were assessed from the view of mass flight trajectories. A flight cost increment index is proposed to reveal the extra costs of involved countries. The impacts on each involved country are further analyzed and the airlines influenced the most are identified. The results show that the flight cost of 6.23% of global international flights significantly increased by 13.32% due to the conflict. Furthermore, as one of the few researches that analyze the impact of regional events on global air transportation, the result of the study reveals the vulnerability of international airlines and provides instruction for flying route optimization.