Assessing impact of varying climatic conditions on distribution of Buchanania Cochinchinensis in Jharkhand using species distribution modeling approach

Abstract

Climate change in combination with anthropogenic stress has adversely impacted the forest ecosystem, leading to depletion in forest resources. Buchanania cochinchinensis represented a noteworthy density in the forest areas of Jharkhand in the past, but it has now been decimated due to excessive unsustainable harvesting, poor regeneration and population fragmentation. In order to promote conservation practices for the species, it is a prerequisite to understand its spatial extent under varying climatic conditions. Present study was aimed to model potential distribution of B. cochinchinensis, in different agro-climatic sub-zones of Jharkhand using Maxent. Bioclimatic variable “Mean temperature of driest quarter” (Bio_9) ranging from 13.800C to 30.400C emerged to be the most sensitive parameter for the distribution of B. cochinchinensis both under the present and future climatic scenarios. Land use land class (LULC) also contributed significantly in characterizing the distribution of B. cochinchinensis for the current climatic scenario. For the current year i.e. 2020, the calculated probable distribution area of B. cochinchinensis in Jharkhand was 7.39%, 25.62% and 2.62% of total forest area for agro-climatic sub-zone IV, sub-zone V and sub-zone VI respectively. The future projection for the year 2050 suggests 84.86% and 8.79% increase in suitable habitat areas under sub zone IV and sub zone V respectively and 43% decrease in sub zone VI. The findings of the study provide an insight into the suitable habitats of B. cochinchinensis for its promotion and conservation in the state of Jharkhand.