Abstract
Tourist arrivals represent popularity of a recreation site. However it could be changed due to accessibility, weather, and natural disaster. These factors are complex and their effects on tourist arrival are mixed. This study applies switching regression approach to assess impact of natural disasters on tourist arrivals in the popular forest recreation and education site, Xitou Nature Education Area (XNEA), Taiwan. Natural disaster in a tourist destination cause environmental changes which impact short- and long-term changes on tourist arrivals. Precisely estimating the impacts on tourist arrivals could therefore provide an insight to management. The results show that (1) Typhoon Herb reduced tourist arrivals by an estimated 530 thousand over three years; (2) the Chichi earthquake caused a 2.59 million loss in tourist arrivals over seven years; (3) Typhoons Toraji and Nari resulted in a 360 thousand reduction in tourist arrivals over three years; and (4) Typhoon Mindulle reduced tourist arrivals by 80 thousand over a one-year period.
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