Assessing impact of land-use changes on carbon stock dynamics in coastal mangrove ecosystem in Bali Island, Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia has more than 3 million ha of mangrove forests along its coastal islands, play a significant role as one of the largest global blue carbon storages for an estimated 3.14 billion tons in 2020. However, this mangrove ecosystem is under serious threat with 6% of annual forest loss recorded due to the conversion of various land-use changes. Bali has 2207 ha of intact mangrove forest and has the potential to store a large amount of carbon pool, at the same time Bali serves as the center of tourism activity in Indonesia which raises a challenge to maintain its sustainability. This study aims to estimate the dynamics of carbon storage in Bali island using spatial and temporal data generated from satellite imagery (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2) and GIS modeling. We analyzed the distribution of mangroves forest from the past and present to understand the threat from land-use change and modeling the future scenario using InVEST. The model will predict the dynamics of carbon stock from present, past, and future values to be assessed and evaluated under development scenarios. Assessing and quantifying the amount of carbon stored in mangrove ecosystem is fundamental in the context of climate change and development of sustainable mitigation programs.