Assessing human and environmental health in global diets from a perspective of economic growth

Abstract

Food consumption can significantly impact both human and environmental health. As economies grow, a global dietary transition is underway. Assessing the sustainability of diets and identifying potential risks of global diets in relation to economic growth are prerequisites for countries to implement targeted dietary interventions. However, existing studies assessing dietary sustainability focus primarily on present performance, not considering the potential future transitions in dietary patterns triggered by economic growth. We propose a two-dimensional “status quo-income elasticity” assessment framework to identify potential risks to diet-related human and environmental health in different countries as their economies expand. Our evaluation of diet sustainability in 141 countries encompasses three aspects: nutritional intake, disease risk, and environmental impact. We first assessed the nutrient supply and diet-related disease risk in each country based on their food consumptions. We then employed an Environmental Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output model to account for the environmental impacts. Additionally, an econometric model was constructed to gauge the income elasticity of each indicator to reflect the marginal change associated with economic growth. We found that some high-income countries with declining intakes of quality nutrients such as vitamins and minerals may face potential risks of inadequate intakes in the future. However, the future appears relatively optimistic. Although high-income countries currently have a high dietary environmental footprint, their diet-related environmental pressures (particularly carbon emissions and air pollution) will be somewhat mitigated with economic growth due to their substantial negative elasticity. Our assessment results can assist countries in designing tailored dietary interventions from an economic development perspective to promote economic growth, improve human health, and enhance environmental sustainability synergistically.