Abstract
Intensive land-cover changes (LCC) driven by unplanned urbanisation continue to threaten the sustainability of ecological assets in many cities in Africa. Evaluating the nature and processes of these changes is key to understanding the extent to which ecological instability may be affecting sustainability futures. This study employed integrated remote sensing, GIS, land accounting techniques and utilisation of high-resolution Quickbird and Worldview 2 images to analyse actual (2008–2017) and future (2017–2030) LCC and explored implications for ecological sustainability in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area, Ghana. After mapping and classifying actual LCC, multi-layer perception (MLP) neural network and Markov chain were employed to predict future LCC for the year 2030. The results indicate that the built-up area increased substantially from 27% in 2008 to 46% in 2017 and is expected to rise to 73% by 2030. In contrast, open-space (10%), forestlands (5%) and grassland/farmlands (49%) decreased progressively (2008–2030). In effect, these land-cover types experienced area turnover ˃100% during the actual and predicted period, indicating high vulnerability of natural land cover to urban growth, ecological degradation and resource depletion. These findings highlight significant implications of LCC for ecological sustainability in the study area. A proactive land-cover/use management plan is necessary to ensure sustainable urban development and ecological land conservation.
Highlights
Intensive land-cover change (LCC) is one of the most important factors leading to increasing concerns over global environmental change and sustainability across many cityscapes [1,2]
This study explored the spatio-temporal dynamics of LCC and its implications for ecological sustainability in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area (GAMA)
The general patterns and tendency of LCC in the region reveal that the trend of changes experienced between 2008 and 2017 is expected to continue into the future as per the predicted land-cover map for 2030
Summary
Intensive land-cover change (LCC) is one of the most important factors leading to increasing concerns over global environmental change and sustainability across many cityscapes [1,2]. The se factors lead to a decline in land-cover types with high ecological values, thereby thwarting their capacity to sustain livelihoods and the well-being of people [2,3]. Global changes in land cover due to population growth urbanisation and expansion of human settlements have been estimated to be 4.89% between 1992 and 2015 [2] This has resulted in a significant decline in the estimated value of major ecosystem assets, including their services and resources, ranging from US$ 4.3 to 20.2 trillion per year globally [4]
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