Abstract
In this work, the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator in Europe is demonstrated. The UTCI is a bioclimate index that uses a multi-node human heat balance model to represent the heat stress induced by meteorological conditions to the human body. Using 38 years of meteorological reanalysis data, UTCI maps were computed to assess the thermal bioclimate of Europe for the summer season. Patterns of heat stress conditions and non-thermal stress regions are identified across Europe. An increase in heat stress up to 1 °C is observed during recent decades. Correlation with mortality data from 17 European countries revealed that the relationship between the UTCI and death counts depends on the bioclimate of the country, and death counts increase in conditions of moderate and strong stress, i.e., when UTCI is above 26 and 32 °C. The UTCI’s ability to represent mortality patterns is demonstrated for the 2003 European heatwave. These findings confirm the importance of UTCI as a bioclimatic index that is able to both capture the thermal bioclimatic variability of Europe, and relate such variability with the effects it has on human health.
Highlights
Extreme high temperatures, such as those experienced during a heatwave, represent a serious meteorological hazard to human health and wellbeing
In this paper the potential of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as a heat-related health risk indicator has been analysed at the pan-European level for the first time
Using 38 years of meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis, UTCI maps of heat stress have been computed for the summer season (June, July, August) at different day-time steps
Summary
Extreme high temperatures, such as those experienced during a heatwave, represent a serious meteorological hazard to human health and wellbeing. A recent study demonstrated global forecasts of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for providing an overview of health hazards related to extreme high temperatures (Pappenberger et al 2015). Developed by the International Society of Biometeorology (ISB) Commission 6 and the COST Action 730 through a multidisciplinary collaboration of experts, the UTCI is a bioclimate index describing the physiological heat load, called stress, that the human body experiences in the attempt to maintain a thermal equilibrium with the surrounding outdoor environment (Błażejczyk et al 2013). The UTCI-Fiala model combines an advanced dynamic multi-node physiological model that includes heat and mass transfer within the body, thermoregulatory reactions of the
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