Assessing Golfer Performance on the PGA TOUR

Abstract

The game of golf involves many different types of shots, including long tee shots (typically hit with a driver), approach shots to greens, shots from the sand, and putts on the green. Although determining the winner of a golf tournament by counting strokes is easy, assessing which factors contributed most to the victory is not. In this paper, we apply an analysis based on strokes gained, introduced previously, to assess professional golfer performance in different parts of the game [Broadie M (2008) Assessing golfer performance using Golfmetrics. Crews D, Lutz R, eds. Sci. Golf V: Proc. World Sci. Congress Golf (Energy in Motion, Inc., Mesa, AZ), 253–262]. Strokes gained is a simple and intuitive measure of each shot's contribution to a golfer's score and was implemented by the PGA TOUR to measure putting in May 2011. We apply strokes gained analysis to extensive ShotLink™ data to rank PGA TOUR golfers in various skill categories and to quantify the factors that differentiate these golfers. Long-game shots (those starting over 100 yards from the hole) explain about two-thirds of the score variability among PGA TOUR golfers. Tiger Woods is ranked first in total strokes gained, and at or near the top of PGA TOUR golfers in each of the three main categories: long game, short game, and putting. He dominates because he excels in all phases of the game, but his long game accounts for about two-thirds of his scoring advantage relative to the average of other PGA TOUR golfers (i.e., the field). We use a similar approach to rank PGA TOUR courses for their difficulty, both overall and in each part of the game. We also discuss the recent change in the groove rule for irons by the United States Golf Association. A preliminary analysis shows that it has had almost no impact on scores from the rough.