Assessing future temperature and humidity trends using an ensemble of high-resolution simulations for the eastern Mediterranean region

Abstract

<p>Climate change is well-established as the major environmental issue of concern by the scientific community and the policy-makers around the globe. In order to examine climate variability both at a global and regional scale, key climatic variables such as temperature and humidity are examined in climate research. A significant temperature rise could lead to unsustainable conditions for the natural and human ecosystems. Additionally, water vapor is  recognized as the most important natural greenhouse gas, playing a principal role in the hydrological cycle. Specific and relative humidity are sensitive to temperature changes and therefore, examining temperature along with humidity variations is considered essential for the deeper understanding of the atmosphere’s thermodynamic and radiative processes. This study focuses on the analysis of future temperature, specific and relative humidity trends at different atmospheric pressure levels over the eastern Mediterranean region based on data from an ensemble of regional climate multi-model simulations for each of the Representative Concentration Pathways, namely RCP4.5, RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. The main purpose of this study is to examine whether statistically significant changes in the climate of the eastern Mediterranean are likely to occur in the future and investigate the relationship between temperature and humidity variations. The results of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend analysis are discussed.</p>