Abstract
Climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions is expected to alter the natural availability of water, affecting domestic, agricultural and industrial uses. This work aims at assessing the possible future impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature and runoff, and to simulate the effects on reservoir demand–performance curves. To this aim, a modeling chain is set up, based on the combined use of regional climate models (RCMs) and water supply system simulation models. The methodology is applied to the Pozzillo reservoir, located in Sicily (Italy), which has experienced several droughts in the past. We use an RCM model that, based on a previous study, has proved to be the most reliable in the area, among those of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. RCM precipitation and temperature monthly time series are used to generate future reservoir inflow data, according to two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emissions scenario) and a two-step bias correction procedure. Simulation of the reservoir indicated that, due to reservoir inflow reduction induced by climate change, performances of the Pozzillo reservoir are predicted to decrease significantly in the future, with impacts of RCP8.5 generally higher than RCP4.5.
Highlights
Climate change, related to greenhouse gas emissions, potentially modifies the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, and increases problems in their management [1,2]
Results for this study showed that the reliability index decreased (4%) while vulnerability and resiliency indexes increased by 38% and 4%, respectively; the decrease in performances could be nulled by optimizing the reservoir operating rule
In this research we have analyzed how climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions may affect the performance of reservoirs in semi-arid Mediterranean areas, with a specific application to the Pozzillo reservoir in Sicily
Summary
Climate change, related to greenhouse gas emissions, potentially modifies the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources, and increases problems in their management [1,2]. Mexico [12], southwestern United States [13], Malaysia [14], West Bank in Israel [15], Corfu [16], and Turkey [17]. These studies are based on the analysis of climate projections obtained by perturbing
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