Assessing future drought conditions under a changing climate: a case study of the Lake Urmia basin in Iran

Abstract

Abstract This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on drought over the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Drought events for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and were compared with the adopted baseline period (1976–2005). The SPI and SPEI were calculated using the precipitation and temperatures obtained from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. The results of SPI analyses revealed that under RCP 2.6 the frequency of droughts is almost constant while under RCP 8.5 drought frequency increased especially in the period 2071–2100. The calculated SEPI under both scenarios and during all future periods predict that the frequency and duration of droughts will increase. Generally, the difference between the SPI and SPEI is related to the input to each index. SPI is solely based on precipitation while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Under global warming and changing climate, the significant role of PET was highlighted. It was concluded that the SPEI outperformed the SPI for drought studies under a changing climate.