Assessing fossil energy supply security in China using ecological network analysis from a supply chain perspective

Abstract

Fossil energy plays a critical role as a global energy source, underscoring the utmost importance of ensuring its supply security. As a prominent global energy consumer, China possesses vast coal resources; however, it heavily depends on oil and natural gas imports. Given the formidable challenges posed by environmental constraints and resource scarcity, investigating the security of China's fossil energy supply emerges as a pivotal research concern. This study adopts an innovative energy supply chain perspective, dividing the energy supply system into distinct links, including upstream energy supply, midstream energy conversion, and downstream energy consumption. Through ecological network analysis, the safety levels of China's coal, oil, and gas supply systems were meticulously assessed, considering network structure, sustainability, and network utility. The research findings indicated a relatively stable security level for China's fossil energy supply system during the period from 2010 to 2020, focusing on key aspects such as coal processing and conversion, oil inventory, and foreign-sourced natural gas supply. Moreover, scenario analysis results offer valuable insights and recommendations to bolster the security of China's fossil energy supply. The application of the ecological network model as a comprehensive assessment tool provides a fresh approach to evaluating the energy security of countries from the perspective of energy supply chains.