Assessing Forest Vulnerability to Climate Change Combining Remote Sensing and Tree-Ring Data: Issues, Needs and Avenues

Abstract

Forests around the world are facing climate change. Increased drought stress and severe heat waves in recent decades have negatively impacted on forest health, making them more vulnerable and prone to dieback and mortality phenomena. Although the term vulnerability is used to indicate an increased susceptibility of forests to climate change with a worsening of their vigour status that can compromise their ability to respond to further climate extreme events, there are still uncertainties on how to evaluate it. Indeed, evaluation of forest vulnerability is complex both because of some critical issues in the estimation methods used and because of the multiple factors influencing the response of forests to ongoing climate change. A way to assess the vulnerability to environmental stresses is by combining remote sensing and dendroecological data. However, these two approaches entail multiple uncertainties, including growth/photosynthetic relationships, carbon allocation dynamics, biases of tree-ring data and noisy remote sensing data, which require further clarification for proper monitoring of pre- and post-drought forest trajectories. Our review aims to create an overview of the current literature and knowledge to understand the critical issues, needs and possible solutions that forest vulnerability research is addressing. We focus on Mediterranean forests located in a climate warming hotspot and showing a high vulnerability to increased aridification.