Abstract
Abstract. Flood detention areas serve the primary purpose of controlled water storage during large flood events in order to decrease the flood risk downstream along the river. These areas are often used for agricultural production. While various damage estimation methods exist for urban areas, there are only a few, most often simpler approaches for loss estimation in rural areas. The loss assessment can provide an estimate of the financial provisions required for the farmers' compensation (e.g., in the context of cost-benefit analyses of detention measures). Flood risk is a combination of potential damage and probability of flooding. Losses in agricultural areas exhibit a strong seasonal pattern, and the flooding probability also has a seasonal variation. In the present study, flood risk is assessed for a planned detention area alongside the Elbe River in Germany based on two loss and probability estimation approaches of different time frames, namely a monthly and an annual approach. The results show that the overall potential damage in the proposed detention area amounts to approximately 40 000 € a−1, with approximately equal losses for each of the main land uses, agriculture and road infrastructure. A sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of flooding (i.e., the frequency of operation of the detention area) has the largest impact on the overall flood risk.
Highlights
Flood risk management measures aim to reduce the negative effects of floods
The results show that the overall potential damage in the proposed detention area amounts to approximately 40 000 C a−1, with approximately equal losses for each of the main land uses, agriculture and road infrastructure
The objective of the present study is to investigate the effect of time-varying damage in the flood risk assessment of rural flood prone areas
Summary
Flood risk management measures aim to reduce the negative effects of floods. The designation of detention areas as one of these measures is currently being discussed for the Elbe and many other rivers. Several sites along the middle course of the Elbe River (Germany) have already been proposed as potential locations for flood detention, and were investigated in terms of flood peak reduction potential (IKSE, 2003; Helms et al, 2002) Stakeholders, such as farmers, are reluctant to allow allocation of agricultural lands for flood detention, because of the negative effects inundated waters have on agricultural lands (crop losses, excessive sediment and contaminant deposition, potential degradation of the soil, etc.). During the large Elbe flood in August 2002, an area of 200 km on the right side of the Elbe River including the proposed detention site was flooded due to several dike failures (BfG, 2002) This flood event enables a validation of the damage estimation methods using damages recorded at the municipal level The two different flood loss estimation methods, their applicability in other locations, and the potential impact of future developments (i.e., land-use changes, frequency of polder operation) on the results are discussed
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