Abstract
The Amazon Forest, possessing the highest carbon stock (CS) per hectare in Brazil, is confronting deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions as a result of changes in land use and land cover (LULC), as well as agricultural activities. Economic-ecological assessments of CS offer valuable insights for decision-making, especially through the lens of ecosystem services. This study aims to (a) assess the LULC changes in the Amazon Forest in Tocantins State between 2000 and 2020, (b) project LULC for 2050, and (c) estimate the CS for 2050, thereby contributing to the analysis of CS variability within the Amazon biome. Given current land use trends, the Business as Usual (BAU) methodology was employed to simulate the 2050 CS using InVEST software. Results indicate that total sequestration under the BAU scenario would reach 736,904 tonnes of carbon by 2050, generating societal benefits of US$ 21.85 million (range of US$ 12.75 million to US$ 37.33 million) based on the social cost of carbon. The Amazon Forest in Tocantins State contributes to carbon sequestration, with the projected economic value from decarbonization credits in 2050 estimated between US$ 27.90 million and US$ 29.36 million.
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