Assessing Dynamic Risk and Dynamic Strength Change Patterns and the Relationship to Reoffending Among Women on Community Supervision

Kayla A Wanamaker,Shelley L Brown

doi:10.1177/00938548211026706

Abstract

This study examines how dynamic risk and strength factors change over time and whether these changes are predictive of reoffending outcomes. The sample includes 2,877 Canadian women under community supervision with Service Planning Instrument reassessment data. Over a 30-month period, patterns of change in total dynamic risk and strength scores were examined. Change parameters were entered into a series of logistic regression models, linking change to three reoffending outcomes: technical violations, any new charges, and new violent charges. Overall, total dynamic risk scores decreased, and total dynamic strength scores increased over time. Change in total dynamic risk scores predicted any new charges and technical violations, whereas change in total dynamic strength scores only predicted technical violations. Findings demonstrated the utility of reassessing dynamic risk and strength scores over time and support the incorporation of strengths-based approaches with women involved in the criminal justice system.

Highlights

Risk assessment is critical for informing case management plans for those involved in the criminal justice system, which includes determining appropriate supervision intensity and programming targets
Results indicated that initial dynamic risk score was a significant predictor of new charges, violent charges (OR = 1.014, 95% CI = [1.003, 1.025]), and technical violations (OR = 1.027, 95% CI = [1.018, 1.035]), whereby those with higher scores were more likely to reoffend across all three outcomes
Results indicated that the initial total dynamic risk score was predictive of all three outcomes; the change in scores was only predictive of any new charges and technical violations

Summary

Introduction

Risk assessment is critical for informing case management plans for those involved in the criminal justice system, which includes determining appropriate supervision intensity and programming targets. Brown / Change in Dynamic Risk and Strength Among Women 3 tend to focus on pathways into the criminal justice system (e.g., Belknap, 2015) or concentrate on identifying variables that should be incorporated in risk assessment measures Researchers in this area argue that existing risk/needs assessment models were developed on male samples and fail to include factors that are most relevant for women (Van Voorhis et al, 2010). Women-focused assessment models have suggested that there are several variables especially salient for women, which include parental stress, family support, self-efficacy, educational assets, housing safety, anger/hostility, current mental health and relationship dysfunction, and victimization (Van Voorhis et al, 2010; Wardrop et al, 2019) This body of research has focused on identifying appropriate classification cutoff scores for women, positing that cutoff scores for men may be inappropriate for use with women, leading to either over- or underclassification (Blanchette & Brown, 2006). This body of work, has predominately utilized single-wave designs, many of which do not incorporate rigorous statistical approaches or examine how women’s scores on various risk and strength factors change over time

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion