Assessing Data Mining Approaches for Analyzing Actuarial Student Success Rate

Abstract

One way to enhance the likelihood that more students will graduate within the specific major that they begin with is to attract the type of students who have typically (historically) done well in that field of study. This chapter details a study that utilizes data mining techniques to analyze the characteristics of students who enroll as actuarial students and then either drop out of the major or graduate as actuarial students. Several predictive models including logistic regression, neural networks and decision trees are obtained. The models are then compared and the best fitting model is determined. The regression model turns out to be the best predictor. Since this is a very well understood method, it can easily be explained. The decision tree, although its underpinnings are somewhat difficult to explain, gives a clear and well understood output. Not only is the resulting model a good one for predicting success in the major, it also allows us the ability to better counsel students.