Abstract
The lack of reliable rainfall projection records remains a major challenge to Uganda. In the advent of extreme wetness or drought events, reliable rainfall estimates for local planning and adaptation are essential. The present study used two main datasets to conduct a historical analysis from 1981 to 2019, coupled with future projections under representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) for the period 2020–2050. Historical analysis revealed bimodal annual rainfall patterns for March–May (MAM) and September–November (SON) gradients representing heavier to lighter rainfall events, respectively, over the study area. Investigation of recent trends in rainfall patterns revealed an upward trend from 2010 onwards in annual and seasonal rainfall. Moreover, results for future projections show wet conditions are projected to occur over the study area between the months of April/May and October. Contrarily, March is likely to experience a reduction in wet conditions. Mann–Kendall test employed to make future projections of rainfall depicted decreasing patterns during MAM season whilst increasing tendencies with strong shift was highlighted for SON season over the study region. Meanwhile, annual projections indicate huge variations with linear trends showing a marginal increase as compared to historical trends. Findings would serve as baseline print to propel further studies that could delve into impact analysis of drought extreme events which pose significant threats to the agricultural sector which is heavily reliant on rainfall.
Highlights
Many African nations rely heavily on rainfall for agricultural activities, hydroelectric production and water supply for their day-to-day activities
A variability in rainfall occurrence has farreaching consequences on the economic stability of many regions
An accurate rainfall quantification remains a paramount process for sustainable development
Summary
Many African nations rely heavily on rainfall for agricultural activities, hydroelectric production and water supply for their day-to-day activities. Recent decades have been characterized by the emergence of extreme climatic events over many countries in both hemispheres, mainly due to global warming (Alexander et al 2006; Seneviratne et al 2013; Sillmann et al 2013). The outcome of several studies has shown developing countries would bear the unfortunate impacts of extreme weather events such as drought, floods, heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and wildfires as compared to mid-latitude and northern hemispheric nations (Seneviratne et al 2012; Niang et al 2014; Reliefweb 2020; Eckstein et al 2020). Climate hazards would influence agricultural productivity (food security) in the sub-Saharan region (Parry et al 2005; Schlenker and Lobell 2010). This threat could be further exacerbated by the increasing population, which is estimated to increase at approximately 4.8% per annum
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
