Assessing Credibility in Bayesian Networks Structure Learning

Abstract

Learning Bayesian networks from data aims to create a Directed Acyclic Graph that encodes significant statistical relationships between variables and their joint probability distributions. However, when using real-world data with limited knowledge of the original dynamical system, it is challenging to determine if the learned DAG accurately reflects the underlying relationships, especially when the data come from multiple independent sources. This paper describes a methodology capable of assessing the credible interval for the existence and direction of each edge within Bayesian networks learned from data, without previous knowledge of the underlying dynamical system. It offers several advantages over classical methods, such as data fusion from multiple sources, identification of latent variables, and extraction of the most prominent edges with their respective credible interval. The method is evaluated using simulated datasets of various sizes and a real use case. Our approach was verified to achieve results comparable to the most recent studies in the field, while providing more information on the model’s credibility.