Abstract
Flows originating from cold and mountainous watersheds are highly dependent on temperature and precipitation patterns, and the resulting snow accumulation and melt conditions, affecting the magnitude and timing of annual peak flows. This study applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) modelling framework to investigate spatial variations and relative importance of hydroclimatic drivers of annual maximum flows (AMF) and mean spring flows (MAMJflow) in 25 river basins across western Canada. The results show that basin average maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax), April 1st SWE and spring precipitation (MAMJprc) are the most important predictors of both AMF and MAMJflow, with the proportion of explained variance averaging 51.7%, 44.0% and 33.5%, respectively. The MLR models’ abilities to project future changes in AMF and MAMJflow in response to changes to the hydroclimatic controls are also examined using the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) output for RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results show considerable spatial variations depending on individual watershed characteristics with projected changes in AMF ranging from −69% to +126% and those of MAMJflow ranging from −48% to +81% by the end of this century. In general, the study demonstrates that the MLR framework is a useful approach for assessing the spatial variation in hydroclimatic controls of annual maximum and mean spring flows in the western Canadian river basins. However, there is a need to exercise caution in applying MLR models for projecting changes in future flows, especially for regulated basins.
Highlights
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Civil Engineering Department and the School of Earth Environment and Society, McMaster University, Abstract: Flows originating from cold and mountainous watersheds are highly dependent on temperature and precipitation patterns, and the resulting snow accumulation and melt conditions, affecting the magnitude and timing of annual peak flows
No clear pattern was found differentiating the results from regulated tude and timing of peak streamflow events with implications on infrastructures and ecoand unregulated since some regulated stations
The analysis indicated that the basin-integrated SWEmax direction and magnitude of projected changes in annual maximum flow (AMF) among the river basins could partly or April 1st SWE and mean spring precipitation (MAMJPr) are the most prominent prebe due to changes in the synchrony of mainstem and tributary streamflow during high-flow dictors of AMF and MAMJflow throughout the region, together explaining over 80% of periods at the mainstem–tributary confluence [40]
Summary
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Watershed Hydrology and Ecology Research Division, Civil Engineering Department and the School of Earth Environment and Society, McMaster University, Abstract: Flows originating from cold and mountainous watersheds are highly dependent on temperature and precipitation patterns, and the resulting snow accumulation and melt conditions, affecting the magnitude and timing of annual peak flows. This study applied a multiple linear regression (MLR) modelling framework to investigate spatial variations and relative importance of hydroclimatic drivers of annual maximum flows (AMF) and mean spring flows (MAMJflow) in 25 river basins across western Canada. The study demonstrates that the MLR framework is a useful approach for assessing the spatial variation in hydroclimatic controls of annual maximum and mean spring flows in the western Canadian river basins.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
