Assessing climate sensitivity of peak electricity load for resilient power systems planning and operation: A study applied to the Texas region

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of peak electricity load has long been an active area of research in electricity markets, and power systems planning and operation. Unanticipated climate-induced surges in peak load can lead to supply shortages causing frequent brownouts and blackouts, and large-scale socioeconomic impacts. In this paper, the climate sensitivity of daily peak load is characterized by leveraging advanced statistical machine learning algorithms. More specifically, a rigorously tested and validated predictive model based on the Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm is proposed. Results from this study revealed that maximum daily temperature followed by mean dew point temperature are the most important predictors of the climate-sensitive portion of daily peak load. Among the non-climatic predictors, electricity price was found to have a strong positive association with the daily peak load. Economic growth was observed to have an inverse association with the daily peak load. While the proposed framework is established for the state of Texas, one of the most energy-intensive states with geographic and demographic susceptibility to climatic change, the methodology can be extended to other states/regions. The model can also be used to make short-term predictions of the climate-sensitive portion of daily peak load.