Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow and Baseflow in the Karnali River Basin, Nepal: A CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble Approach Using SWAT and Web-Based Hydrograph Analysis Tool

Abstract

Our study aims to understand how the hydrological cycle is affected by climate change in river basins. This study focused on the Karnali River Basin (KRB) to examine the impact of extreme weather events like floods and heat waves on water security and sustainable environmental management. Our research incorporates precipitation and temperature projections from ten Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We applied thirteen statistical bias correction methods for precipitation and nine for temperatures to make future precipitation and temperature trend projections. The research study also utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at multi-sites to estimate future streamflow under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios of SSP245 and SSP585. Additionally, the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT) was used to distinguish between baseflow and streamflow. Our findings, based on the Multi-Model Ensemble (MME), indicate that precipitation will increase by 7.79–16.25% under SSP245 (9.43–27.47% under SSP585) and maximum temperatures will rise at rates of 0.018, 0.048, and 0.064 °C/yr under SSP245 (0.022, 0.066, and 0.119 °C/yr under SSP585). We also anticipate that minimum temperatures will increase at rates of 0.049, 0.08, and 0.97 °C/yr under SSP245 (0.057, 0.115, and 0.187 °C/yr under SSP585) for near, mid, and far future periods, respectively. Our research predicts an increase in river discharge in the KRB by 27.12% to 54.88% under SSP245 and 45.4% to 93.3% under SSP585 in different future periods. Our finding also showed that the expected minimum monthly baseflow in future periods will occur earlier than in the historical period. Our study emphasizes the need for sustainable and adaptive management strategies to address the effects of climate change on water security in the KRB. By providing detailed insights into future hydrological conditions, this research serves as a critical resource for policymakers and stakeholders, facilitating informed decision-making for the sustainable management of water resources in the face of climate change.