Assessing cause and effect of multiple stressors on marine systems

Abstract

An operational framework is developed to serve as a guideline for investigating causal relationships between environmental stressors and effects on marine biota. Because of the complexity and variability of many marine systems, multiple lines of evidence are needed to understand relationships between stressors and effects on marine resources. Within this framework, a weight of evidence approach based on multiple lines of evidence are developed and applied in a sequential manner by (1) characterizing the study system which involves determining if target biota are impaired, assessment of food and habitat availability, and measuring contaminant levels in the environment, (2) assessing direct effects of contaminant exposure on target biota using biomarkers and assessing indirect effects of exposure using suites of bioindicators, and (3) applying standard causal criteria based on epidemiological principles and diagnostic health profiling techniques to assess potential causes. Use of multiple lines of evidence should also reduce the risk of false positives (Type I error or falsely concluding that there is a causal relationship when there is none) and false negatives (Type II error or falsely concluding there is not a causal relationship when there actually is). Understanding causal relationships and the mechanistic processes between environmental stressors and effects on biota is important in the effective management and restoration of impaired marine ecosystems.