Assessing Capabilities in International Politics: Biased Overestimation and the Case of the Imaginary ‘Missile Gap’

Abstract

How states assess the capabilities of their adversaries and rivals is of paramount importance to the theory and practice of international relations. This paper presents a framework for understanding why states overestimate the capabilities of their adversaries. Three types of overestimation are presented, consisting of conscious/rational, erroneous and biased overestimation. In order to demonstrate the phenomenon of biased overestimation in international politics, the case of the ‘Missile Gap’ (1957–61) controversy in the United States is examined.